The future is already here — it’s just not very evenly distributed.
Let’s take a look at the future…Today!
The title of this post, a quote by William Gibson, is often a topic of my talks, so I thought I would take a look at some futuristic technologies that are here today.
“If somebody describes the world of the mid-twenty-first century to you and it doesn’t sound like science fiction, it is certainly false.”
— Yuval Noah Harari
You may have noticed that life seems to go by faster, the older you get. Well, with technology, this is even more true. The rate of technological change is only accelerating and, as someone whose job it is to understand and utilize disruptive technologies, I know it’s sometimes hard to keep up.
Consider AOL. Excerpts from “Start with Why” by Simon Sinek show us just how quickly times change…
“America Online used to inspire. Like Google today, it was the hot company to work for… In those days, having an AOL e-mail address was a point of pride — a sign of being one of those who was a part of the Internet revolution. These days, still having an AOL e-mail address is a symbol of having been left behind.”
Having an @aol.com address, using a flip phone, and so many other things can show how far you have been left behind. These things aren’t that old, and the rate of change is accelerating by the day!
“We won’t experience one hundred years of technological advance in the twenty-first century; we will witness on the order of twenty thousand years of progress… or about one thousand times greater than what was achieved in the twentieth century.”
— Ray Kurzweil
So what are some sci-fi sounding technologies that are here today?
Ethics of Artificial Intelligence (AI)
Well, to begin, let’s consider the ethics of AI. Here are just a few of the countless questions people are considering today.
- Can (or should) a machine intentionally cause harm? (for example: an autonomous car purposely killing the driver to avoid hitting a crowd of people, or vice versa)
- An autonomous car hits a pedestrian. Is it the fault of the driver (who was in the car but not in control), the car manufacturer (who was nowhere near the accident), someone else?
- How will AI redistribute jobs? (AI will replace some jobs but create others — more on this later!)
- Data can have biases, which are then passed into the model. How big of a deal is Bias?
- “Robot rights” is the concept that people should have moral obligations towards their machines, similar to human rights or animal rights. What are your thoughts on this? Do we really need to spend time on this now or is this far off in the future?
Robots
Let’s start with the last question (on robot rights). Sophia, a social humanoid robot activated in 2016, became the first robot to receive citizenship of any country (Saudi Arabia), in 2017. In that same year, Sophia was named the United Nations Development Program’s first ever Innovation Champion, and is the first non-human to be given any United Nations title.
Sophia has been an official citizen of the world for years and has even been given a UN title. Should she have rights like other Saudi citizens do? Apparently, not if you’re with the USPTO.
“Under current law, only natural persons may be named as an inventor in a patent application.”
— US Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO) 04/27/2020
And we’re beginning to see more and more robots. For example, if you live in Santa Monica, you can have your Chick-fil-A meal delivered by a Kiwibot robot. And Domino’s Pizza and Nuro have teamed up to launch a robotic pizza delivery service in Houston. Of course there are tons of other examples most people don’t usually see like robots helping to build Teslas and move inventory around Amazon warehouses.
IEEE’s guide to the world of robotics explores all sorts of modern robots. Categories include:
- For the classroom
- From Boston Dynamics
- Baby robots
- Robots that can dance
- Robot helpers
- Robots with interactives
- Bio-inspired machines
- Lifelike androids (Sophia is in this category)
- Robots you can hug
- For your home (my Roomba is here)
- Space robots
- Factory workers
- More robots
And, of course, there are also living robots. The millimeter-wide “xenobots” are formed by scraping live stem cells from frog embryos and leaving them to incubate. The resulting skin and heart cells are then reshaped and combined into “body forms” designed by a supercomputer to complete certain tasks — walking, for example, or swimming. The pulsing heart cells serve as a miniature engine that powers xenobots until their energy reserves run out.
OK, so how is this useful? Well, Xenobots can work together in groups, self-heal, and record information about their surroundings. These “living, programmable organisms” might one day carry out tasks such as removing plaque from artery walls.
Autonomous Vehicles
There are lots of companies working on autonomous vehicles, with varying degrees of success, but the world of robotaxis is not far off.
To expand upon my earlier point of technology accelerating, let’s consider Tesla.
- Mid-way through 2020, ALL auto makers’ sales were down, with the sole exception of Tesla.
- Tesla is now the most valuable car company in the world — worth more than Fiat Chrysler, Ford, General Motors, Ferrari, BMW, Honda, and Volkswagen… combined!
- Note that Tesla is less than 18 years old and its flagship product — the Model 3 — is just 4 years old. To put this into perspective, Fiat, Ford, General Motors, and BMW are all over 100 years old, with the youngest company on this list being Honda (founded 72 years ago).
And, by the way, cars aren’t the only vehicles being automated. Earlier this year, the company, Xwing, demonstrated the first gate-to-gate fully autonomous airplane flight.
AI’s Impact on the Workforce
Before leaving the realm of the ethics of AI, I wanted to touch on AI’s impact on the workforce. This isn’t totally aligned with the letter of this post, but I feel it is aligned with the spirit.
Machines and algorithms in the workplace are expected to displace 75 million jobs by next year, according to the World Economic Forum. But they’ll create 133 million new roles. This means that the growth of AI could create 58 million net new jobs in the next few years.
AI has its place, as do humans!
Consider — How many of today’s professions could have even been imagined 100 years ago? A recent title of mine was AI/ML Evangelist. My title 25 years ago was Webmaster. How about something simple like computer programmer or blogger or fast food cashier? Not a thing 100 years ago.
The automobile cut the need for most horse-related workers, but created many more jobs (manufacturing, infrastructure, oil, improving the productivity of other industries, etc.)! Also, just because some of the activities in a job have been automated, that does not imply that the whole job has disappeared. To the contrary, automating parts of a job often increases the productivity and quality of workers by complementing their skills with machines, as well as enabling them to focus on those aspects of the job that most need their attention.
Of course, there is a clear mismatch between occupations that will be lost and those that will be in demand. Professions with the biggest looming shortfalls (most openings) are computer-related occupations and jobs in science, technology, engineering and math (STEM). Work that requires compassionate human interaction, including healthcare, social services or teaching, will also be in high demand. Existing jobs most likely to be affected (lost) will be in office and administrative support, food preparation, production workers, and drivers (taxis, truck drivers, etc.).
Some governments are already tackling this upskilling problem (Singapore’s SkillsFuture program is one example) and some companies are preparing as well; however, far more needs to be done in this area.
Companies investing in new skills now will gain a significant competitive advantage, by ensuring that they have the right talent in the right place at the right time.
Where We Live
So we’ve discussed artificial people, self-driving cars, the impact on jobs. What about where we live?
Smart Societies
Japan’s Society 5.0 envisions a sustainable, inclusive socioeconomic system, powered by digital technologies such as big data analytics, AI, the Internet of Things (IoT), augmented reality (AR), virtual reality (VR), and robotics across three priority areas: health, mobility, and productivity. It represents a vision for a smarter society where humans, nature and technology enjoy a sustainable, data-enhanced balance.
“Society 5.0 aims to resolve various modern social challenges by incorporating game-changing innovations such as IoT, robotics, AI, AR/VR, and big data into all industries and social activities. Rather than a future controlled and monitored by AI and robots, technology is harnessed to achieve a human-centred society in which each and every person can lead an active and enjoyable life. Within the context of ever-growing digitalization and connectivity and expanding use of AI technologies, several actions have been initiated under this flagship concept by the Japanese government as well as by the private sector.”
— Harayama Yuko
Smart, Connected Communities
The Line is a part of the Neom project announced by the Saudi Arabian government as part of its “Vision for 2030”, with the objective of creating “a living laboratory”, complete with hyper-automation, creative entrepreneurship and sustainable initiatives.
Within Neom, The Line will extend over roughly 120 miles of desert and be comprised of smaller communities all connected to each other with a single ultra-high-speed transit line. AI-enabled micro-mobility services will replace cars (there will be no streets) and everything will be powered through the 100% renewable Neom grid.
The Line will be organized in three layers.
- Top layer: This is where the people live, arranged in community “modules” of about 80,000 citizens each. Residents will never be more than a five-minute walk away from anything they need, including schools, medical clinics and leisure facilities.
- Middle layer: This is an infrastructure layer few people will see and is comprised of services dedicated to last-mile logistics.
- Bottom layer: This is the “spine” layer which contains the transportation system connecting the communities at high speed. According to Neom’s team, going from one end of The Line to the other will never take more than 20 minutes.
OK. So that’s a society and small country-sized collection of communities. What about a neighborhood?
3D Printed Neighborhoods
The desert landscape of California’s Coachella Valley will soon be home to the first US neighborhood comprised entirely of 3D printed houses. This five acre parcel of land in Rancho Mirage will be transformed into a planned community of 15 3D printed, Eco-friendly homes. Each home will consist of a three bedroom, two bath primary residence of 1,450 sq ft along with a secondary 2/1 residence on the property. Each will also have a swimming pool with options including hot tubs, fire pits, and outdoor showers.
The material used used in the 3D printing process hardens almost immediately, allowing a roof, layers of insulation, and exterior features such as an overhang to be added all in one process. Up to 80% of the construction can be automated, with 95% fewer labor hours and 10 times less waste than conventional construction. The company’s printers have the capacity to make a 350-sq-ft home in less than 24 hours, meaning the printers can be set to build a house overnight, while the employees are asleep.
Healthcare
With all the medical terminology that we’ve all been bombarded with over the past year or so, it shouldn't be any surprise that there are some interesting things going on in healthcare.
First, let’s revisit the world of 3D printing.
Bioprinting
There have been 3D printed surgical instruments, dental implants, etc. for several years. But the next frontier is Bioprinting — the process of using 3D printers for creating bodily structures such as bones and skin, one layer at a time, using biomaterial.
Stem cells are taken from the patient and then cultivated to form a bioink, which the 3D printers then use to create body organs. For instance, the heart valves of humans are already being 3D printed. With 3D printed bones, an accurate bone structure can replace the damaged part. The biomaterial used in the bone is not only durable but regenerative as well.
What else can be 3D printed today? The list includes things like the cornea, cartilage (think noses and ears), and skin (dermic, hypodermic, epidermic skin cells, for example to replace burnt skin). With lots more to come. Very soon…
CRISPR
Another interesting development in the medical field is clustered regularly interspaced short palindromic repeats, or CRISPR. I’m not the only one that finds this interesting. The 2020 Nobel Prize in Chemistry was awarded to the scientists who discovered the CRISPR gene editing tool in 2012 for “rewriting the code of life” and their 2012 CRISPR paper has received more than 6,000 citations already (only 700 papers out of 50 million published since 1970 have received that many).
So what is CRISPR? Well, if you want to read the finer details about it, DuckDuckGo (like Google but doesn’t track you) is your friend. For our purposes, let’s just say that CRISPR has revolutionized the molecular life sciences, brought new opportunities for plant breeding, is contributing to innovative cancer therapies and may make the dream of curing inherited diseases come true. There are currently CRISPR trials underway in the U.S — targeting cancer, lymphoma, sickle cell disease, and inherited blindness. Phase I of the “CRISPR targeting cancer” trial showed it to be safe. All trials are expected to last several years. Scientists are also studying CRISPR for many other conditions, including high cholesterol, HIV, and Huntington’s disease. Researchers have even used CRISPR to cure muscular dystrophy in mice.
The technology has contributed to many important discoveries in basic research, while plant researchers have been able to develop crops that withstand mold, pests and drought. Of course, when you’re talking about “rewriting the code of life”, ethical issues are bound to arise. For example, Chinese scientist He Jiankui was jailed for creating the world’s first gene-edited babies. Good and bad, you will be hearing much more about this in the years to come.
Hyper-Personalized Medicine
If you have a headache, you have a choice of medications (Tylenol, Advil, etc.) that you can take or therapies to try (massage, warm cloth, etc.). But lots of people get headaches, so drug manufacturers have a financial interest in creating medications that treat the masses. But what if you had an extremely rare condition? There are over 7,000 rare diseases, and over 90% of them have no F.D.A.-approved treatment. So, historically, you would just be out of luck; however, less so these days…
Hyper-personalized medicine is one of the breakthrough technologies of 2020 and the global personalized medicine market is expected to reach $3.18 trillion by 2025. Individual programs of medicine can be developed faster and cheaper. Here are just some examples:
When Ipek Kuzu was three years old, she was diagnosed with an extremely rare genetic mutation that causes the loss of brain cells. Now she’s become only the second person in the world to receive a customized “antisense oligonucleotide” drug designed to compensate for the DNA mistake.
The nutritional needs of people vary. When grocery shopping, how do you know what to get that your body needs? Well, DNA Nudge is a wearable device that will provide personalized recommendations based on your DNA.
OK, well what about which vitamins to take? Enter Nourished, which make 3D printed customizable vitamins tailored specifically to an individual’s needs.
United Nations Sustainable Development Goals
Let’s now take a look, not so much at amazing new technologies, but rather how things like AI are being used to improve the world.
The 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, adopted by all United Nations Member States in 2015, provides a shared blueprint for peace and prosperity for people and the planet, now and into the future. At its heart are the 17 Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), which are an urgent call for action by all countries — developed and developing — in a global partnership. We have less than 10 years to solve the SDGs and AI holds great promise. Let’s take a look at some examples.
No Poverty
“In this new century, millions of people in the world’s poorest countries remain imprisoned, enslaved, and in chains.
They are trapped in the prison of poverty. It is time to set them free. Like slavery and apartheid, poverty is not natural. It is man-made and it can be overcome and eradicated by the actions of human beings.
And overcoming poverty is not a gesture of charity. It is an act of justice. It is the protection of a fundamental human right, the right to dignity and a decent life.
While poverty persists, there is no true freedom.”
— Nelson Mandela
- More than 10% of the world’s population live in extreme poverty, surviving on less than $2 a day.
- Half the world’s population have no access to social protection (in the US, we take these things for granted — things like unemployment benefits, social security, health insurance, etc.).
- 90% of famine in the past few decades has happened in countries affected by conflict.
Today, 124 million people worldwide live with crisis levels of food insecurity, relying on urgent humanitarian assistance to survive, and over half of these populations live in conflict zones.
So the World Bank, United Nations, International Committee of the Red Cross, and others turned to AI to support the Famine Action Mechanism (FAM) and provide humanitarian assistance in conflict zones.
Incorporating data for various causes of famine (satellite imagery, conflict data, weather forecasts, local food prices, agricultural production, and more), FAM has developed machine learning models to identify patterns in regions and countries earlier, so they can predict 6–12 months out where food will be at crisis levels and intervene and save lives before it is too late.
Reduced Inequalities
“We cannot seek achievement for ourselves and forget about progress and prosperity for our community…
Our ambitions must be broad enough to include the aspirations and needs of others, for their sakes and for our own.”
— Cesar Chavez
Some good news — In 2016, 65% of products exported by the least developed countries to world markets faced zero tariffs, an increase of 20% since 2010. However, economic growth is not enough to reduce poverty if it doesn’t involve all three dimensions of sustainable development — economic, social and environmental. Social protection has been significantly extended globally, yet people with disabilities are up to five times more likely than average to incur catastrophic health expenditures.
Brain Power is an organization that teaches social skills to people with autism and other brain-related challenges through computer vision and augmented reality.
They utilize AI to analyze fidgeting and other body motions of children with autism and/or ADHD. Brain Power captures movement and uses patterns of motion to measure the children’s improvement in symptoms after using their augmented-reality system.
Life Below Water
“It is a curious situation that the sea, from which life first arose should now be threatened by the activities of one form of that life. But the sea, though changed in a sinister way, will continue to exist; the threat is rather to life itself.”
— Rachel Carson
- Oceans cover 75% of the Earth’s surface, contain 97% of the Earth’s water, and represent 99% of the living space on the planet by volume.
- They contain nearly 200,000 identified species (actual numbers may lie in the millions).
- They absorb about 30% of carbon dioxide produced by humans, buffering the impacts of global warming.
- They serve as the world’s largest source of protein, with more than 3 billion people depending on the oceans as their primary source of protein and marine fisheries directly or indirectly employ over 200 million people.
- Today, current levels of acidity have increased by 26% since the start of the Industrial Revolution and coastal waters are deteriorating due to pollution and other factors.
An accurate map of the ocean bottom is vital for safe navigation, sustainable fisheries and understanding ocean circulation which drives weather and climate.
Saildrone designs, manufactures and operates a global fleet of wind and solar-powered, AI-infused autonomous surface vehicles called saildrones, which make efficient, cost-effective ocean data collection possible at scale.
Saildrone is building the world’s largest high-resolution ocean datasets because better inputs in planetary models will yield better outputs and the new insights gained in weather forecasting, carbon cycling, global fishing, and climate change will have a tremendous impact on humanity.
The Past has been Amazing, and the Future will be Even More So!
Have we discussed all of the wondrous technologies currently in existence and how they are being used today? Hardly.
We’ve barely covered a flea on a polar bear sitting on top of the tip of the iceberg.
And things are only accelerating.
To better understand just how much life will change in the very near future, let’s remember just a few of the things we’ve seen this century (the past 20 years).
- 2000 — Garmin GPS, Jabra Bluetooth Earpiece, USB Flash Drive, US Text Messaging
- 2001 — iPod, Wikipedia
- 2002 — Blackberry, Roomba, XBox
- 2003 — IEEE 802.11g Wi-Fi, Xlerator Hand Dryer, Tesla created
- 2004 — Facebook, Google goes public, First cyborg is recognized (Neil Harbisson, UK)
- 2005 — Dysons Air Blade available in US, YouTube
- 2006 — Cloud computing (AWS), Sony Playstion 3/Blu-ray, Twitter, Wii
- 2007 — iPhone, Amazon Kindle, Netflix introduces online streaming
- 2008 — Airbnb, Google Chrome, Spotify, Tesla Roadster
- 2009 — Bitcoin, Fitbit, GPS on smartphones, Uber
- 2010 — 4G, Android phone, iPad, Instagram, Instant Pot
- 2011 — Curiosity (Mars Rover) launched, Snapchat
- 2012 — Lyft, Keurig, Tesla Model S
- 2013 — Cultured Meat, CRISPR-Cas9 harnessed for genome editing, Large Hadron Collider
- 2014 — Curiosity discovers water under the surface of Mars
- 2015 — Amazon Echo, Multi-use rockets landed (Blue Origin and SpaceX), Fully operational quantum computer
- 2016 — Solar Shingles, Sophia (social humanoid robot) activated
- 2017 — Tesla Model 3, Sophia became the first robot to receive citizenship of any country and was named the United Nations Development Program’s first ever Innovation Champion (the first non-human to be given any UN title)
- 2018–3D Metal Printing, 3D Printed Housing, 5G, Amazon Go, Gravity Jet Suit, High Energy Laser Weapon System
- 2019 — Holographic Car Assistant, Making Food from Thin Air, Solar Roadways
- 2020 — AlphaFold, GPT-3, Living Robots, Quantum Supremacy
Stop for a second and really think about the above list.
Twenty years ago or so, you were not texting or using social media.
You weren’t using your iPhone/Android for directions, streaming entertainment, or anything at all, actually.
There was no Netflix-and-chill, calling an Uber, or booking an Airbnb.
No WiFi, YouTube, or iPod.
And the most valuable car company in the world today, didn’t even exist.
That’s a lot of change in just 20 years. And remember, the change is only accelerating.
Whenever thinking about things like this, I always gain a little perspective by remembering the Pale Blue Dot. If you’re not familiar with Carl Sagan’s book, look it up. To give you a taste, here’s an excerpt…
“Look again at that dot. That’s here. That’s home. That’s us.
On it everyone you love, everyone you know, everyone you ever heard of, every human being who ever was, lived out their lives.
The aggregate of our joy and suffering, thousands of confident religions, ideologies, and economic doctrines, every hunter and forager, every hero and coward, every creator and destroyer of civilization, every king and peasant, every young couple in love, every mother and father, hopeful child, inventor and explorer, every teacher of morals, every corrupt politician, every “superstar,” every “supreme leader,” every saint and sinner in the history of our species lived there -
On a mote of dust suspended in a sunbeam.”
The world will change more in the next 20 years than it has in the last 200. Are you ready?
